Global Fund Replenishment 8 Scenarios
Ahead of the Global Fund's 8th Replenishment, use this scenario builder to understand how potential donor pledges could impact the funds available for health programs in Grant Cycle 8.
This dashboard cannot predict the actual programmatic and financial impact of the Eighth Replenishment. Depending on the pledging outcomes, the Global Fund Secretariat and Board are likely to evolve the methodologies and policies for calculating country allocations and planning programs. Nonetheless, this dashboard visualizes the best estimates of impact using publicly-available and the current policies and methodologies approved the Board.
Donor Pledge Scenarios
Use the text input fields to create custom scenarios for the 8th Replenishment by adjusting donor pledges for Replenishment 8. Note that due to changes in currency exchange rates since 2022, flat funding relative to the 7th Replenishment will result in changes in the total pledge in USD equivalents.
1 For R7, currency exchange rates are taken from the currency exchange rates at the time of the Replenishment Conference. For R8, exchange rates are updated daily from x-rates.com.
2 Set-asides are from GF/SC21/13 and are available from Aidspan. These figures do not include Germany’s BACKUP Initiative, which is additional to the German pledge.
3 In this table, set-asides are set by default as a percentage of the total pledge, using the values from R7. These are 20% for France, 10% for Australia, and 5% for the United Kingdom, Italy, and the Gates Foundation. The United States set aside is 5% of the pledge after adjustment for unmet match. Overwriting the set-aside value allows users to visualize different scenarios.
Sources of Funds
, this chart displays the potential adjustments that could be made to the pledge, the amount set aside for bilateral donor support and for catalytic investments, and the final total amount available for country allocations.
1 Adjustments to United States pledge due to unmet matching requirements.
2 Includes adjustments for pledges received as complementary restricted financial contributions and risk of non-payment. Values are carried forward from R7 Sources of Funds (GF/B48/03 A Revision 1).
3 Amount carried forward from R7 Sources of Funds (GF/B48/03 A Revision 1)
4 Catalytic Investments will still be necessary should sources of funds for allocation for GC8 be less than US$ 12.26 billion. The Secretariat will make a recommendation on these amounts to the Board in such a scenario.
Global Disease Split
, this chart displays how this replenishment scenario would impact disease split for country Allocations. Importantly, the Board has modified the disease allocation methodology between replenishments, meaning that the same total dollar input will result in different disease distributions compared to Grant Cycle 7.2 Note that these amounts do not include Matching Funds, Strategic Initiatives, or non-Allocation multi-country funds.
1 Source: 2023-2025 Allocations. Amount excludes $40M that was allocated for an Integrated Health Response and RSSH Package under Multicountry East Asia and Pacific RAI.
2 Based on the methodology approved in GF/B52/08B, maintains GC7 split up to and including US$ 12.0B, applies a split of 40% for HIV, 25% for TB, and 35% for malaria when the available funds for country allocation are US$ 17.0B and above, and applies a linear interpolation in scenarios between US$ 12.0B and 17.0B. The value for "8th Replenishment Country Allocation" is used in this calculation.
Catalytic Investments
, this chart displays the levels of funding available for each catalytic investment priority area. For scenarios with less than US$12.26 billion available for allocations, the Secretariat will make a recommendation on amounts.
| Priority | Components | Less than US$ 12.26b | US$ 12.26-US$ 13.2b | US$ 13.2-US$ 14.2b | US$ 14.2-US$ 15.2b | $15.2b and above |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NextGen Market Shaping & Response | Accelerate innovation and scaled use of products | Amounts to be recommended 1 | 100 | 130 | 175 | 234 |
| Promote sustainable regional manufacturing ecosystems | 10 | 20 | 50 | 60 | ||
| Environmentally sustainable supply, delivery & distribution | 0 | 5 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Emergency Fund | 20 | 40 | 40 | 40 | ||
| Address Human Rights and Gender Barriers | 30 | 70 | 90 | 100 | ||
| Build Community Networks & Engagement | 20 | 50 | 70 | 90 | ||
| Supporting Sustainability and Transition from Global Fund Financing | Responsible preparation for sustainabity and transition to maintain progress against HTM, including across borders | 20 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Blended Finance | 0 | 10 | 10 | 10 | ||
| Public Financial Management | 0 | 10 | 25 | 30 | ||
| Optimizing RSSH | Advancing HRH/CHW Systems Maturity, Sustainability and Value for Money | 0 | 10 | 15 | 20 | |
| Integrated regional laboratory system strengthening | 0 | 0 | 35 | 55 | ||
| Improved HTM outcomes through integration with reproductive, maternal, newborn and STI services | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Climate and Health *differentiated priority per GC7 mid-cycle investment | TBD | 0 | 10 | 40 | 110 | |
| Total | 200M | 400M | 600M | 800M | ||
1 Source: GF/SC26/06F. Catalytic investments will still be necessary should sources of funds for allocation for GC8 be less than US$ 12.26 billion. The Secretariat will make a recommendation on these amounts to the Board in such a scenario.
Country Allocations
, this visual displays the indicative shift in country allocations based on country income level1.
1 Source of scenarios: GF/B52/08B. Above, between, and below Board paper scenarios are linearly interpolated/extrapolated.
2 LIC = low income country, Lower-LMIC = lower lower-middle income country, Upper-LMIC = upper lower-middle income country, UMIC = upper-middle income country.
Programmatic Results
, this section displays the potential changes to programmatic results in Grant Cycle 8 (GC8).
1 Estimates are calculated using the Global Fund's Eighth Replenishment Investment Case. The results reflect contributions of Global Fund investments to national programs and their results; as such, these results are achieved together with partners. The estimates derived from very high or very low replenishment scenarios should be interpreted with care, as these may not accurately reflect the model's design parameters and could result in less reliable outputs.
Overall resource needs and projected available resources for HIV, TB, and malaria
, this visual displays the Global Fund investment relative to the total resource needs for 2027-2029, in the countries where Global Fund invests1. Given the current volatility in the global health funding landscape, the assumptions around external and domestic financing made in the Investment Case may require reassessment2.
1 Source: The Global Fund's Eighth Replenishment Investment Case. Details of the methodology are available in Annex 1 and Annex 2 of the Investment Case.
2 Notably, US$6.9B of bilateral funding from the U.S. government ($5.4B for HIV, $406M for TB, and $1.1B for malaria in FY25) is likely to decrease, while domestic investments are likely to increase.